Do lottery statistics show that lottery jackpots follow bell-shaped curves or not?
This controversy has been going on for some time. Some think that it has been going on since the inception of the lottery. Some think that it was happening all along but just never got publicized.
Here are some of the roughest facts about lottery statistics that I know.
- It is definitely possible to have lottery statistics that show that the number of winners is bell-shaped. It is also possible to have lottery statistics that show that the winners were more common.
- bell-shaped curves will not lead you anywhere. negatively, statistically, winners follow bell-shaped curves in the first place.
- The actual odds of winning a lottery jackpot are generally worse than even money
- The greater your number of total entries, the better your chances of winning a jackpot are. In other words, the more lottery tickets you buy, the better your odds of winning.
- However, if you do win a jackpot, you generally lose everything over time. The chance of winning a jackpot is just too low.
- Number selection is the least important part of winning a lottery
- Playing too many different lottery games with too few numbers is bad. Germany, France and Spain for example, have one of the best lotteries in the world, but the probability that someone will win a jackpot in these countries is lower than in the UK.
Some of the oser facts about lotteries include:
- Some lotteries that are frequently drawn, such as Powerball, offer the same odds to win as other lotteries like Mega Millions.
- The odds of winning a Powerball jackpot are approximately 1-in-195-million
- The odds of winning a jackpot on a US Powerball, or Mega Millions lottery, are approximately 1-in-175-million
- The top prize on a German EuroMillions lottery ticket is approximately 1-in-3.5-million
The above statistics showing the number of winners compared to the number of winners in relation to the odds of winning are quite fascinating.
Why then do lottery statistics generally show such low odds?
There are actually two reasons why lottery statistics generally show such a low number of winners. The first reason is that, as explained above, it is not possible to identify any trends in winning by looking at lottery statistics for a long time. So, while the Joy of Dynamic Odds intends to be updated, each week it only knows the number of winners at a given time. Because of this inadequate data, the author of the system has to rely on personally collected information which may not be the most convenient or most accurate.
The second reason is that, as explained above, it is not advisable to depend on manually collected information for the reason that ‘systems’ need to be constantly updated to be practicable. So, we get a one-size-fits-all approach which is not necessarily good enough. Again, we are looking at a probability environment where small improvements can occur constantly, or at least more frequently than is possible in the one-size-fits-all world of statistical prediction.
To conclude, it can be said that not only do lottery statistics generally show a low number of total winners, but also that those winners are more often than not, better than the losers. So, when you buy a Powerball ticket, you are not necessarily looking at a coin-flip fifty per cent chance of winning; you can, instead, probably get a seventy-five per cent chance if you take the time to find the correctly modeled lottery.
KK wisely suggests that instead of buying million dollar winning Powerball tickets, you should save your money until you have bought at least three thousand dollar tickets. If you will continue to wait for Powerball results, you may just be waiting a lot longer. That, in turn, would make it easier to enjoy the dewapoker results when they come.