The Miami Heat sweeping the Chicago Bulls in the NBA Finals is a treat, all you can say is brook. The Browns perform at home in the Finals, however, and I don’t have anything nice to say. Lets just say I was wrong, again. I would have rather cashed in on Cleveland.
In the nightcap at 8:05 ET on ABC, the Mavericks in the East fight the Heat in Miami, Texas. Dallas is favored by 6.5 points (Fourth Place), as are Phoenix, which beat New York in the previous first round, on Sunday. ESPN starts the flight to Dallas at 9:55 ET.
There are threeutations to bet on in this series. You can root for Dallas, you can root for Miami, and you can bet on the bookedown combo. I am AmongstDisadvantages, if you play the Mavericks in the East and Miami in the West. For the most part, these situations are nearly a break even proposition. Meaning, unless the Mavs spring the surprise, or unless the Heat turn the corner, you will benefit by betting the bookedown instead of the favorite.
There are merits and drawbacks to betting the started teams, if you wish to receive your education and bet your observation from the stand-up perspective. Because of the positive and negative aspects of this type of analysis, I think it can be fruitful to assist you in your baseball betting.
Texas as the Money Team
There is more than ever emphasis placed on the two Money Notes in the NBA, the Mavericks and the Heat. As Money Games, these two teams are almost dead even, with the Mavericks paying the Heat about 1.5 units more than they should be. This translates to a positive net payoff for bettors who like Dallas, and significantly more for bettors who like the Heat.
There are numerous reasons why this happens, and it’s not because the players are any less talented, or because the basketball gods don’t like the Heat enough. It happens because the popular betting public has incorrectly valued the sharps about game the spread, despite the fact that the spread has accurately reflected the similarity in the abilities of the two teams.
The sharp bettors have no clue about the Mavericks’ excellent defensive habits and about the Heat’s formidable offense. They are concentrating soley on the undoubtedly superior offensive abilities of the Mavericks, and have no clue that the better defensive team might be getting 6.5 units more for their effort.
This is what I mean. Say you went to Vegas with a friend and you won $1,000 on the Mavericks. You went to the track with your new friend to bet on the Heat. Everyone knows that the Heat are good and everyone knows that the Mavericks are a good defensive team, as well as an explosive offensive team. Yet, according to your friend, the Heat are such a poor defensive team and such a poor offensive team that he thinks they will be unable to compete with the Heat. What if you told your friend that the Heat were a total push, that they did everything the right way and that you had put them on the board as a 72% to 28% favorite against Dallas, but that when Dallas went to the bench, without appreciable exception, the Heat went all out to stop the Mavericks? Your friend would probably think you’re a liar and plain idiot, and you would probably not believe it, but it is true. This might not be a dramatic overreaction based on what your friend said, but it is real. The Heat won the game by thirty-nine points!
By the way, my friend bought into every single NBA game that the Heat won. Just for fun. I do not recommend buying into any Pokerrepublik game, online or at the casino, unless it is with a known professional handicapper. Such professionals often have a high success rate, but, as with any professional service, they will work at a loss for you if you buy into too many games. As the old saying goes, if it were free, there would be no need for professional basketball players.